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Position Summary:
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The Sr Forecasting Planner is responsible for the total NA base forecast which is the basis of the Demand Consensus forecast. The position is accountable to develop and maintain all statistical type forecasts and system set ups and maintenance in JDA demand for their assigned items. The individual will collaborate with the demand planners to understand and align to sales and marketing promotional forecasts as well as understand any impacts to the historical and statistical forecasts. This role will drive projects and process for advanced analytics, exception-based forecasting, and system and database maintenance in order to achieve forecast accuracy targets and organizational objectives. Driving high forecast accuracy is the foundation of an agile and efficient supply chain—enabling the right product, in the right place, at the right time, while minimizing waste, reducing costs, and maximizing service levels. It directly informs planning, procurement, production, and deployment, making it the single most impactful metric for end-to-end supply chain performance
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Accountabilities
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Statistical Forecast
- Forecast Development: Generate & provide the unconstrained shipment forecast to Supply Planning/Operations for a rolling 36-month period in units and gross sales dollars with a focus on current fiscal year.
- Own the process of statistical reconciliation to ensure the best possible statistical modelling parameters and fair share forecast distributions to balance item and demand group level forecasts.
- Utilize all system functionality to drive the best baseline forecasts including Demand Classification, Seasonality curves, Product Family forecasting, NPI forecasting etc.
- Perform forecast modelling and tuning by adjusting forecasting parameters to ensure the best possible accuracy within forecast horizon in line with Lag timing and targets.
- Own the process to apply manual adjustments for OOS & consequent lost sales in line with best practice.
- Suggest and drive improved analytics based to drive improved base forecasts.
- Collaborate with Demand Planners to make recommendations and align trend patterns, forecast change drivers, 3-year strategic view and gap closing actions needed to be reviewed with commercial teams
Analytics
- Ensure the best possible total volume forecast to support the Demand Planning team in gaining validation and IBP sign off
- Utilize exception-based analytics to identify and investigate root cause of forecast accuracy, bias, Coefficient of Variation (CoV), Forecast Value Add (FVA), Extreme Error, SKU segmentation, Service (UFR) out of stocks, SLOBs, inventory issues and drive metric improvements accordingly.
- Focus on improving forecast accuracy within the correct horizon with the aim of maximizing sales, minimizing service issues and balance with working capital and margin targets.
- Leverage bias issues by Business Unit and guide demand planners on key focus areas to eradicate 3-month bias within their BU including review of Market Intelligence and impact on bias and top account bias and actions needed to eradicate bias.
- Understand the impact of supply constraints from global supply planning meetings and provide information to support delivery to customers.
- Suggest and drive improved forecast accuracy root cause analytics for accuracy, OTIF and inventory issues.
- Own Forecast Accuracy reporting for top accounts and provide comprehensive analytics for error drivers and actions and discussions to be addressed with commercial owners to drive SKU level accuracy improvement.
- Drive root cause and action-based discussion points for IBP based on metrics analytics.
History and Data management
- Apply manual adjustments to history for promos / pipe fill / exceptional events when needed to ensure the cleanest historical data
- Managing DFUs (Forecasting records): Items setups, maintenance and set up of base item history and base item forecasts, like item linkages, connections to external data and imports, effectivity and disco dates, exceptions
- Adjust and maintain item level customer be incorporating service impact to history stream within forecasting tool (jda)
- Follow up and support all technical jda data issues related to batch processes, hierarchy, master data issues.
- Ensure the timely transfer of forecasts to supply planning through the forecasting tool and investigate and elevate root cause issues and solutions to correct batch process errors.
- Drive history management improvements in jda i.e. history cleansing functionality, and guidelines and rules for history adjustments i.e. loss of promo, out of stock inventory impact etc.
CoE / IBP:
- Certification in Oliver Wight IBP and support Demand Planning and IBP maturity improvements.
- Capability to prepare all NA IBP meeting decks
- Drive Demand CoE projects for forecast improvement to deliver required strategic improvements
- Prepare all analytical materials for the NA demand reviews/Management Business Reviews for IBP cycle meetings. Provide base forecast change drivers, overall forecast, accuracy and analytical key issues, 3-year outlook key messages.
- Suggest and support Demand Planning of Best-in-Class practices to drive improvements in forecasting either within jda functionality, IBP and Demand Planning Market Intelligence needs.
- Assist in Demand CoE roadmap projects for forecast improvement, delivering required strategic improvements and maintaining and documenting aligned demand processes.
- Cross business knowledge of forecasting processes to manage other responsibilities as needed
- Training and Onboarding of all New Hires and Temporary teammates
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Required Skills and Experience
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- 7+ years of experience in Demand Planning or Forecasting
- BA/BS required (Supply Chain, Mathematics, Statistics, Engineering)
- Number orientated analyst with strong mathematical, statistical and analytical skills.
- Key Competencies: Detail Orientation, Results Driven, Continuous Learning
- Technical aptitude and Forecasting and data software experience required (i.e. jda demand/Manugistics, SAP, PowerBI, etc.)
- Experience in direct training or supervising of at least 1 teammate
- Advanced skills working in Microsoft Office with criticality in Excel, Powerpoint
- Strong skills in creating and presenting data rich analytics and with insights and recommendations t
- Basic working knowledge of CPG and Supply Chain financials and demand plan impact on P&L
- Understanding of project management, prioritization and execution
- Understanding of CPFR, event-based forecasting and retailer analytics
- Professional Certification (IBP, APICS, IBF, SCOR etc.)
Preferred Skills and Experience
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